259994 Phoenix Energy Responsible Business Report 2025.pdf

Responsible Business Report 2025

Scenarios Analysis Phoenix engaged with a specialist provider of climate change scenario analysis to help understand the resilience of our business to different climate change scenarios and the impact of different scenarios on our products and investment strategies. The scenarios utilised were based on the Network for Greening of the Financial System (NGFS) reference scenarios, with additional detail for the natural gas distribution sector, the UK, and Northern Ireland specifically. Together with the specialist advisors, Phoenix used qualitative analysis to develop 3 potential scenarios for Phoenix for the period to 2050. A narrative was created for each of the following scenarios: 1. No Additional Policy Action - resulting in temperature rise greater than 2 o C; 2. Late Policy Action - (Disorderly) after a period of inaction, a sharp transition is needed, resulting in temperature rise of below 2 o C; and 3. Early Policy Adoption/Steady Progress - (Orderly) - resulting in temperature rise of below 1.5 o C.

The three scenarios are shown below, arranged by the level of physical and transition risk that exists in each.

Late Policy Action Disorderly <2°C Scenario After a 10 year delay, a highly disruptive transition begins, sufficient to meet climate goals. 1.5°C achieved in 2100, but overshoots towards 2°C before then.

Early Policy Action Orderly <1.5°C Scenario We start reducing emissions now in a measured way to meet climate goals, limiting temperature rise to less than 1.5°C

No Additional Policy Action >2°C Scenario We continue to increase emissions doing very little, if anything to prevent physical Climate Change

Increasing Transitional Risk

Increasing Physical Risk

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