Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce and Industry Ambition Magazine

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH

NI CHAMBER & BDO NI

Q2 2025 Quarterly Economic Survey

Overall Conditions

Slowdown trend:

of businesses trading well (35%) or reasonably (44%) 79%

21%

52%

of businesses report demand slowdown

are struggling with 15% just covering costs

up from 46% in Q1 and 36% in Q3 2024

UK-EU Reset

• Positive for NI economy: 41% UK economy: 39% • Impact on own business: Positive 24%, Neutral 36%, Negative 10%, Uncertain 20%

• Negative business impact: 21% Positive: 10% • Among US-linked firms: 34% expect negative impact • Negative impact on NI economy: 36%; Positive: 15%

Sectoral Performance

Services

Manufacturing

• Top 3 UK regions in all 11 key indicators • Export orders best in 2 years • Cashflow weak but positive • Profitability expectations dipped slightly

• Top 3 in 5 indicators (down from 9 in Q1) • Declines in export sales/orders, cashflow, machinery investment • Turnover and profitability confidence dropped • 5 consecutive negative cashflow quarters

Recruitment & Labour

Price Pressures & Cost Drivers

Actively recruiting: Manufacturing 81% Services 69%

50% of Manufacturing and 51% of Services expecting to raise prices Labour cost pressures impacting 90% of Manufacturing and 87% of Services

Raw material costs significant for Manufacturing

Utility cost pressure: Manufacturing down from 63% to 51%, Services down from 53% to 44%

Manufacturing 79% Services 70%

% of firms reporting an increase in a key indicator minus the % reporting a decrease.